​Yes, we are in a bull market. No, it is not a bubble. At least not yet.

We spent most of the latter part of last year talking about how markets were poised to turn, and if recent returns have not changed the minds of any remaining bears, nothing will. Of course, this does not mean we are saying throw caution to the wind, we are always mindful of risk. However, with the prevailing negativity, we want to take the opportunity to reaffirm our bull market view. In this area, it seems as though sentiment has improved in recent months. Even though inflation is proving to be sticky around current levels, hard data continues to paint the picture of a solid economic environment and corporate earnings continue to point towards solid growth.

​With the lone exception of emerging market stocks, markets were broadly lower last week. Economic data continues to confound skeptics and muddy the waters for the Fed. The latest data showed continued strength in the labor market, with March’s jobs numbers handily beating expectations (303k added v 214k expected) while the unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 3.8%. Perhaps the more compelling news was on the manufacturing side, where evidence continues to point towards an acceleration in activity.